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新型能源体系下天然气的均衡能源定位与作用机制研究

Research on the balanced energy positioning and mechanisms of natural gas in the new energy system

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨国内构建兼顾安全、经济与环保的新型能源体系过程中天然气的战略定位与作用机制。
    方法 首先,构建“安全−经济−环保”三维评估框架分析天然气的均衡特性;其次,结合能源发展史梳理与国内外转型路径比较,论证天然气作为均衡能源的必然性;接着,运用失衡竞争与运行体制历时演进(unbalanced competition and regime change diachronic, UCRCD)模型量化天然气与可再生能源的协同效应;最后,从产品链、产业链、价值链三个层面解析天然气发挥均衡作用的内在机制。
    结果 天然气因其优异的综合性能成为最具均衡特质的能源品类,在新型能源体系中定位为“均衡能源”。其核心作用体现为“替煤、稳电、孵氢、减碳”:①在产品链层面系统性替代煤炭;②在产业链层面与可再生能源强协同,弥补间歇性短板,提升系统稳定性;③在价值链层面通过多能协同配置重构用能模式。
    结论 天然气是弥合煤炭“兜底”与新能源“主体”鸿沟的关键媒介,对构建新型能源体系至关重要。需通过细化顶层设计、推动产学研融合、加快企业组织改革等措施,充分释放其均衡能源价值。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To explore the strategic positioning and mechanism of natural gas in the process of building a new energy system that takes into account safety, economy and environmental protection in China.
    Method Firstly, a three-dimensional evaluation framework of "safety-economy-environmental protection" was constructed to analyze the equilibrium characteristics of natural gas. Secondly, combined with the history of energy development and the comparison of domestic and foreign transformation paths, the necessity of natural gas as a balanced energy was demonstrated. Thirdly, the unbalanced competition and regime change diachronic (UCRCD) model was used to quantify the synergistic effect of natural gas and renewable energy. Finally, the internal mechanism of natural gas playing a balanced role was analyzed from the three levels of product chain, industrial chain and value chain.
    Result Natural gas has become the most balanced energy category because of its excellent comprehensive performance, and is positioned as "balanced energy " in the new energy system. Its core role is embodied in "replacing coal, stabilizing electricity, incubating hydrogen, and reducing carbon". Firstly, at the product chain level, it systematically replaces coal. Secondly, at the industrial chain level, it is strongly coordinated with renewable energy to make up for intermittent shortcomings and improve system stability. Thirdly, at the value chain level, the energy consumption mode is reconstructed through multi-energy collaborative configuration.
    Conclusion Natural gas is the key medium to bridge the gap between coal and new energy, and it is very important to build a new energy system. It is necessary to refine the top-level design, promote the integration of industry, university and research, and accelerate the reform of enterprise organization, and fully release its balanced energy value.

     

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