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基于多元线性回归的柴油基础理化性质预测模型

Prediction model of basic physical and chemical properties of diesel based on multiple linear regression

  • 摘要:
    目的 利用组成特征建立柴油性质预测模型,实现高效的性质预测,并分析组成特征对性质的影响。
    方法 根据92组模拟柴油样品数据计算组成特征,根据组成特征(平均相对分子质量、氢碳比、碳数、不饱和度、平均分子芳香烃环数、平均分子环烷烃环数、平均分子总环数)与性质(密度、折光率、运动黏度、动力黏度、表面张力、蒸馏曲线积分)的相关性分析筛选合适的组成特征描述符,通过多元线性回归建立组成特征−性质预测模型并优化,通过标准化将组成特征的尺度统一,重新建模分析组成特征对性质的相对重要性。
    结果 初始模型(氢碳比和碳数)预测密度、折光率、蒸馏曲线积分效果较好(决定系数R2>0.85),但黏度和表面张力精度不足。优化后引入芳香烃环数和环烷烃环数,显著提升了模型性能,除表面张力外,其他性质的R2均大于0.90,平均绝对百分比误差δMAPE<5%,密度与折光率的R2>0.95。分析表明,碳数主导黏度和蒸馏曲线,芳香烃环数和环烷烃环数对密度影响显著。
    结论 芳香烃环数、环烷烃环数和碳数是影响柴油基础理化性质的关键描述符,能准确预测柴油基础理化性质,该研究为柴油组成设计和性能优化提供了可靠的量化分析工具,对燃料研发具有重要指导意义。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective The aim is to establish a property prediction model for diesel fuel using compositional features, to realize efficient property prediction, and to analyze the effect of compositional features on properties.
    Method Compositional features were calculated from 92 sets of simulated diesel fuel samples, and suitable descriptors were selected based on the correlation analysis between the compositional features (average relative molecular mass, hydrogen-carbon ratio, carbon number, unsaturation, average molecular aromatic hydrocarbon rings, average molecular cycloalkane rings, and average molecular total rings) and the properties (density, refractive index, kinematic viscosity, dynamic viscosity, surface tension, and integral of the distillation curve). The predictive model of compositional feature-property was established and optimized by multiple linear regression, the composition feature scales were unified by standardizing, and the relative importance of compositional features to properties was analyzed by re-modeling.
    Result The initial model (hydrogen-carbon ratio and carbon number) showed good performance in predicting density, refractive index, and integral of distillation curve (determination coefficient R2>0.85), but the predictions for viscosity and surface tension were not accurate enough. After optimization, the introduction of aromatic and cycloalkane ring numbers significantly improved the model performance, with R2>0.90 for all properties, mean absolute percentage error δMAPE<5%, and R2>0.95 for density and refractive index. The analysis showed that the carbon number dominated the viscosity and distillation curves, and the aromatic and cycloalkane ring numbers had a significant effect on the density.
    Conclusion Aromatic ring number, naphthenic ring number, and carbon number are the key descriptors affecting the basic physicochemical properties of diesel fuel, and models based on these descriptors can accurately predict such properties. This study provides a reliable quantitative analysis tool for diesel fuel composition design and performance optimization, which is of great significance in guiding the research and development of fuels.

     

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