Objective To address the issues faced by China's hydrogen energy development, such as the low proportion of green hydrogen, high carbon emissions from coal-based hydrogen production, and regional resource mismatches, and to explore an effective transitional path for hydrogen supply in the context of low-carbon transformation, taking Sichuan Province as a case study and focusing on the practical value and adaptation plan of natural gas-based hydrogen production.

Method The study conducts a horizontal comparison of the cost structures and carbon emission characteristics of coal-based hydrogen production, electrolytic water-based hydrogen production, and industrial by-product hydrogen production. Combined with Sichuan Province’s resource endowment of “abundant natural gas, rich water resources, and multi-energy complementarity”, the large-scale application potential of natural gas-based hydrogen production coupled with CCUS technology in the iron and steel, chemical, transportation, and emerging fields is analyzed systematically. At the same time, linking local policy orientations and technological R&D progress, the economic viability and regional adaptability of this technical path are demonstrated comprehensively.

Result The results show that natural gas-based hydrogen production in Sichuan has significant synergistic advantages in cost and emission reduction, which can accurately fill the technical gap between "high carbon and low cost" and "zero carbon and high cost". Based on this, a development model of "large-scale natural gas-based hydrogen production + gradual substitution by green hydrogen" is proposed, which can effectively support industrial decarbonization, the construction of transportation hydrogen energy networks, and the innovation of emerging energy scenarios, promoting the transformation of hydrogen supply from "peak regulation and supply guarantee" to "active empowerment." The study also points out that it is necessary to address challenges such as dependence on imported core technologies and high storage and transportation costs by accelerating the industrialization of green hydrogen technology, improving hydrogen-blending pipeline facilities, and strengthening policy incentives.

Conclusion  This study provides a feasible transitional plan for the large-scale development of hydrogen energy in Sichuan Province, and also offers practical references for the differentiated layout of the hydrogen energy industry in resource-rich regions across China.